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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌨 Snow Spread -3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DAL
39.0%
PHI
61.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Nick Foles (PHI) -0.430 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.063 EPA/dropback
  • PHI defense: -0.221 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph
  • Nick Foles (PHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DAL 16
–
PHI 20
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 36

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DAL

David Irving DE Out Concussion
Benson Mayowa DE Out Back
Cole Beasley WR Questionable Illness
Rod Smith RB Questionable Back
Richard Ash DT Questionable Shoulder
La'el Collins T Questionable Back

PHI

Brandon Graham DE Out Ankle
Joe Walker LB Out Neck
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 6
–
PHI 0

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q4 12:24 TD DAL (12:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-B.Butler for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-S.Means]. DAL 6 – PHI 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%

    (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep middle to 82-T.Smith.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 40%

    (9:07) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to PHI 42 for -1 yards (57-D.Ellerbe).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:50) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to DAL 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-47-N.Gerry.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:50) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to PHI 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-31-B.Jones.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 29%

    (2:33) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:10) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to DAL 44, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 16%

    (14:05) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to PHI 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:17) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:16) 6-C.Jones punts 31 yards to DAL 47, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 38-K.Barner ran ob at DAL 39 for 8 yards (51-K.Wilber).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 34%

    (5:39) 8-D.Jones punts 39 yards to DAL 4, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-32-R.Douglas.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 29%

    (:39) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to PHI 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 38-K.Barner to PHI 13 for 3 yards (35-K.Frazier).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 21%

    (13:25) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:09) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to DAL 47, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. PENALTY on DAL-57-D.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 47.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:40) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 7, and recovers at PHI 3. 38-K.Barner to PHI 3 for no gain (31-B.Jones).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 29%

    (3:15) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to DAL 1, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:45) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to DAL 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 28 for 12 yards (45-R.Lovato).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (9:04) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-14-L.Lenoir.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%

    (5:40) (Shotgun) 7-N.Sudfeld pass incomplete short left to 18-S.Gibson (23-B.Benwikere).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (:16) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.