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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 41
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(9:07) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to PHI 42 for -1 yards (57-D.Ellerbe).
The Three Options
GO
+1.18 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
KICK
-1.21 EP
- 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 60% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
