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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to DAL 47, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. PENALTY on DAL-57-D.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 88, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model