Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(7:50) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to DAL 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-47-N.Gerry.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.12 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model