Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PHI 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 7, and recovers at PHI 3. 38-K.Barner to PHI 3 for no gain (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model