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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep middle to 82-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model