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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 7 at the 49
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(13:25) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.89 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
KICK
-2.02 EP
- 21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 79% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT
-0.62 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
