CHI @ MIN — 4th & Data

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HC John Fox

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HC Mike Zimmer

Sunday 2017-12-31 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 13.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

CHI

25.1%

MIN

74.9%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

MIN defense: -0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
CHI offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
QB edge to MIN: Case Keenum (MIN) +0.120 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.083 EPA/dropback
MIN offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18

–

MIN 26

Projected margin: MIN by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CHI

Bobby Massie T Doubtful Knee

Josh Sitton G Doubtful Ankle

DeAndre Houston-Carson S Questionable Back

Adam Shaheen TE Questionable Chest

MIN

Pat Elflein C Out Shoulder

Kevin McDermott LS Out Shoulder

Shamar Stephen DT Out Ankle

Tramaine Brock CB Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10

–

MIN 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:13 TD MIN (9:13) 25-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 6
Q2 09:34 TD MIN (9:34) (Run formation) 76-A.Collins reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 13
Q2 06:05 TD CHI (6:05) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to CHI 41, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 37-B.Callahan for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – MIN 14
Q2 02:32 SAF MIN (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right [98-L.Joseph]. PENALTY on CHI-10-M.Trubisky, Intentional Grounding, 9 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. The Replay Official reviewed the safety ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 7 – MIN 16
Q3 00:20 TD MIN (:20) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-A.Hicks]. CHI 7 – MIN 22
Q4 08:27 FG CHI (8:27) (Field Goal formation) 1-M.Nugent 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 72

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP

p(convert) 58%

(13:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 19, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 11 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(7:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 28 for 12 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 56%

(3:50) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to CHI 5, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.
Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(:49) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 21, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 29 for 8 yards (52-C.Jones).
Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(8:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to MIN 24, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 36 for 12 yards (58-J.Anderson). PENALTY on MIN-20-M.Alexander, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.
Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(6:05) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to CHI 41, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 37-B.Callahan for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(3:26) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to CHI 12, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, downed by MIN-50-E.Wilson.
Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(1:08) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to CHI 2, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.
Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 46 for 4 yards (85-D.Brown).
Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 45

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 43%

(11:34) 4-R.Quigley punts 37 yards to CHI 8, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
Q3 CHI 4th & 16 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(8:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 38, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 49 for 11 yards (53-J.Timu). PENALTY on MIN-42-B.Gedeon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 49.
Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 48%

(7:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to CHI 5, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
Q3 CHI 4th & 14 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(4:01) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to MIN 33, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for 4 yards (52-C.Jones; 27-S.McManis).
Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

(11:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Inman (29-X.Rhodes).
Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 95

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(10:07) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 56 yards to CHI 39, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 29-T.Cohen to MIN 48 for 13 yards (42-B.Gedeon).
Q4 MIN 4th & 20 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(5:42) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to CHI 36, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

(2:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen to MIN 1 for 1 yard (98-L.Joseph; 97-E.Griffen).