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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 28 for 12 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model