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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 85

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to MIN 33, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 37 for 4 yards (52-C.Jones; 27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model