4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to CHI 41, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 37-B.Callahan for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 42, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model