Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 89

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 38, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 49 for 11 yards (53-J.Timu). PENALTY on MIN-42-B.Gedeon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 49.

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 89, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model