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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to CHI 5, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model