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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 21, Center-49-A.DePaola. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 29 for 8 yards (52-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model