Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 95

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Chicago Bears 7

(10:07) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 56 yards to CHI 39, Center-44-J.Overbaugh. 29-T.Cohen to MIN 48 for 13 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.86 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 95, worth -5.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model