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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to CHI 5, Center-44-J.Overbaugh, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model