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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

JAX
53.3%
SF
46.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.359 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) +0.126 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.210 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 27
–
SF 24
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Out Ankle
Larry Pinkard WR Out Concussion
Allen Hurns WR Questionable Ankle
Lerentee McCray LB Questionable Neck

SF

Greg Mabin CB Doubtful Calf
Garrett Celek TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 33
–
SF 44

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:20 TD SF (10:20) 90-E.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 05:46 FG SF (5:46) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. JAX 0 – SF 10
  • Q2 11:13 TD SF (11:13) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Johnson at 50. 36-D.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SF 16
  • Q2 05:15 TD JAX (5:15) (No Huddle) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 8 – SF 16
  • Q2 00:14 TD JAX (:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 10-J.Strong for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-R.Foster was injured during the play. Pass was intended for and deflected by L.Fournette. 0-YAC JAX 15 – SF 16
  • Q3 11:02 FG JAX (11:02) 4-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 19 – SF 16
  • Q3 06:51 TD SF (6:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 2. 2-YAC JAX 19 – SF 22
  • Q4 10:42 TD SF (10:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 81-T.Taylor for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-A.Colvin]. 0-YAC JAX 19 – SF 29
  • Q4 09:03 TD SF (9:03) 28-C.Hyde left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – SF 36
  • Q4 02:20 TD JAX (2:20) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 25 – SF 37
  • Q4 01:54 TD JAX (1:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 33 – SF 37
  • Q4 01:31 TD SF (1:31) 22-M.Breida left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 33 – SF 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:38) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to SF 29, Center-49-C.Holba. 81-T.Taylor to SF 37 for 8 yards (53-B.Brown).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (5:46) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 56%

    (2:23) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to JAX 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (11:02) 4-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to JAX 32, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-54-C.Marsh.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 51%

    (2:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to SF 14, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:17) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to SF 32, Center-49-C.Holba. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 40 for 8 yards (55-L.McCray).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:38) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to JAX 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (3:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to SF 1 for 8 yards (38-A.Colbert). Caught at SF 4. 3-YAC

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 46 for 19 yards (38-A.Colbert). 2-YAC