4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to SF 14, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP