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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model