Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(13:31) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to JAX 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.74 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model