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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to JAX 32, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-54-C.Marsh.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model