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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model