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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – San Francisco 49ers 37

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to SF 1 for 8 yards (38-A.Colbert). Caught at SF 4. 3-YAC

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model