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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 33 – San Francisco 49ers 44

What Actually Happened

(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 46 for 19 yards (38-A.Colbert). 2-YAC

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.27 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -1.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model