Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(9:38) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to SF 29, Center-49-C.Holba. 81-T.Taylor to SF 37 for 8 yards (53-B.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model