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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 16.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NYJ
21.4%
NO
78.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.199 vs Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.206 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Bryce Petty in place of Josh McCown)
  • NO offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
NO 29
Projected margin: NO by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYJ

Muhammad Wilkerson DE Out Not Injury Related
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Brian Winters G Questionable Abdomen

NO

Trey Hendrickson DE Out Ankle
A.J. Klein LB Out Groin
Andrus Peat G Questionable Groin
Ted Ginn WR Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 19
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:41 FG NO (11:41) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 03:11 TD NO (3:11) 22-M.Ingram left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NO 9
  • Q2 11:04 TD NYJ (11:04) 79-B.Qvale reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – NO 10
  • Q2 06:17 TD NO (6:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 4 NYJ 7 – NO 16
  • Q2 00:13 FG NYJ (:13) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 10 – NO 17
  • Q3 08:12 FG NYJ (8:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 13 – NO 17
  • Q4 07:42 TD NO (7:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 2 NYJ 13 – NO 23
  • Q4 01:55 TD NYJ (1:55) 9-B.Petty pass short right to 25-E.McGuire for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -2, YAC 4 NYJ 19 – NO 24
  • Q4 01:43 TD NO (1:43) 22-M.Ingram right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – NO 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (11:41) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to NO 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis to NO 18 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 97%

    (3:19) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to NYJ 1 for 6 yards (21-M.Claiborne). Pass -2, YAC 8

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to NO 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis to NO 49 for 5 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%

    (3:02) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to NO 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 32 for 7 yards (85-N.Sterling). PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:13) 7-C.Catanzaro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:01) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to NO 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-T.Brooks.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to NYJ 34, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (8:12) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NYJ 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to NO 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 36 for 17 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to NO 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis to NO 20 for 8 yards (54-B.Carter).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 16 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:30) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 30 for no gain (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass deep left intended for 87-J.Natson INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 28. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 28 for no gain.