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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP