Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 76

New York Jets 19 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass deep left intended for 87-J.Natson INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 28. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 28 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.08 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -1.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP