Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 77

New York Jets 13 – New Orleans Saints 17

(1:47) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to NO 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.78 EP
51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model