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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 7 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to NO 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 32 for 7 yards (85-N.Sterling). PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP