4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 24 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 30 for no gain (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model