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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 59

New York Jets 13 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 36 for 17 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.93 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP