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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 80

New York Jets 7 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to NO 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis to NO 49 for 5 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model