Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 68

New York Jets 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(8:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to NO 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Lewis to NO 18 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model