Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: -0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) -0.003 vs Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.040 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Tyrod Taylor in place of Nathan Peterman)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 15
MIA
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:16 TD BUF (10:16) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-75-C.Malveaux, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 0 – BUF 6
- Q1 03:20 FG MIA (3:20) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 3 – BUF 7
- Q2 09:20 FG MIA (9:20) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 6 – BUF 7
- Q2 06:10 TD BUF (6:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 25-L.McCoy for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, slanting to sideline. MIA 6 – BUF 13
- Q2 00:40 TD BUF (:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 20
- Q3 05:44 FG BUF (5:44) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. MIA 6 – BUF 24
- Q4 08:02 TD MIA (8:02) 32-K.Drake up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – BUF 24
- Q4 00:43 FG MIA (:43) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 16 – BUF 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(8:39) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to BUF 32 for 2 yards (45-M.Hull).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:15) 6-C.Schmidt punts 38 yards to MIA 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 41 for 7 yards (40-T.Vallejo).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(3:20) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:28) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to MIA 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%
(9:20) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(2:33) 16-M.Haack punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. Kick into end zone.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%
(11:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Clay. Overthrown, receiver near sideline at MIA 3.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%
(8:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 10-K.Stills INTERCEPTED by 20-S.Wright at BUF 23. 20-S.Wright to MIA 31 for 46 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at MIA 24. 20-S.Wright to MIA 23 for 1 yard (89-J.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 93%
(5:44) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(4:19) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to BUF 32, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 21%
(:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to MIA 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-18-A.Holmes. Ball saved by L.Pitts at MIA 1.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(11:50) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to MIA 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant to BUF 26 for 26 yards (44-D.Lacey). PENALTY on BUF-44-D.Lacey, Horse Collar Tackle, 13 yards, enforced at BUF 26.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 36 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%
(4:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 22 yards to MIA 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 56 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 26%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 14-J.Landry to BUF 39 for 17 yards (24-L.Johnson) [57-L.Alexander]. Caught at BUF 39, slanting from right.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 8 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%
(:43) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
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