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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 24 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 22 yards to MIA 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP