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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 24 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to MIA 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-18-A.Holmes. Ball saved by L.Pitts at MIA 1.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model