Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

(7:15) 6-C.Schmidt punts 38 yards to MIA 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 41 for 7 yards (40-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.49 EP
72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model