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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(11:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Clay. Overthrown, receiver near sideline at MIA 3.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model