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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to MIA 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.85 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model