Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 6 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 10-K.Stills INTERCEPTED by 20-S.Wright at BUF 23. 20-S.Wright to MIA 31 for 46 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at MIA 24. 20-S.Wright to MIA 23 for 1 yard (89-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP

KICK -0.03 EP

55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model