Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 6 – Buffalo Bills 24

(11:50) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.01 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model