Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 6 – Buffalo Bills 14

(2:33) 16-M.Haack punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.36 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model