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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

PHI
47.4%
LA
52.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.205 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Jared Goff (LA) +0.192 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.186 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 26
–
LA 27
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PHI

Joe Walker LB Questionable Neck
Zach Ertz TE Questionable Concussion

LA

Dominique Hatfield CB Doubtful Hip
Connor Barwin LB Questionable Forearm
Alec Ogletree LB Questionable Elbow
Robert Woods WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 43
–
LA 35

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:05 TD LA (13:05) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 08:50 TD PHI (8:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 87-B.Celek for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – LA 7
  • Q1 03:01 TD PHI (3:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 88-T.Burton for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – LA 7
  • Q2 11:18 TD PHI (11:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 88-T.Burton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – LA 7
  • Q2 09:32 TD LA (9:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-77-A.Whitworth was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. LA #77 A.Whitworth, ankle injury. PHI 21 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:14 FG PHI (:14) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 24 – LA 14
  • Q3 11:47 TD LA (11:47) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-S.Watkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 24 – LA 20
  • Q3 10:13 TD LA (10:13) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 88-M.Thomas, Center-45-R.Lovato, RECOVERED by LA-24-B.Countess at PHI 16. 24-B.Countess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 24 – LA 27
  • Q3 02:28 TD PHI (2:28) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – LA 28
  • Q4 14:03 TD LA (14:03) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 31 – LA 34
  • Q4 10:00 FG PHI (10:00) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 34 – LA 35
  • Q4 03:50 FG PHI (3:50) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 37 – LA 35
  • Q4 00:01 TD PHI (:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 10-P.Cooper to LA 25 for 1 yard. Lateral to 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for -5 yards (53-N.Bradham). FUMBLES (53-N.Bradham), RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at LA 16. 55-B.Graham for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 43 – LA 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to PHI 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 29%

    (:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 76%

    (12:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at LA 13 for 18 yards (52-A.Ogletree).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:14) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to LA 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-P.Cooper to LA 22 for -3 yards (18-S.Gibson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to PHI 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-K.Barner pushed ob at PHI 7 for 1 yard (88-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:11) 8-D.Jones punts 62 yards to LA 18, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to PHI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-K.Barner to PHI 16 for 7 yards (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:14) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:13) 8-D.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 88-M.Thomas, Center-45-R.Lovato, RECOVERED by LA-24-B.Countess at PHI 16. 24-B.Countess for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (10:00) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (3:50) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to PHI 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-K.Barner to PHI 21 for 3 yards (24-B.Countess).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:07) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to LA 24, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.