Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 37 – Los Angeles Rams 35

(:07) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to LA 24, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.12 EP
52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -0.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model