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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 8-D.Jones punts 62 yards to LA 18, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.27 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model