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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to PHI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-K.Barner to PHI 16 for 7 yards (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP