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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at LA 13 for 18 yards (52-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.78 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model