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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to LA 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-P.Cooper to LA 22 for -3 yards (18-S.Gibson).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model