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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model